A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
